A GTA Market Update - August 2026

The GTA housing market continued to show signs of transition in July. While prices remain below last year’s levels, buyers have been gradually returning to the market — and at the same time, fewer sellers are choosing to list their homes.

GTA REALTORS® reported 5,995 home sales in July, down just 0.9% compared with July 2025. However, on a seasonally adjusted basis, sales increased 3.2% from June, marking the fifth consecutive month of improving sales activity.

The average GTA selling price was $1,003,956, down 4.5% year-over-year. The MLS® Home Price Index benchmark was $933,800, 4.6% below last year, but increased 0.3% from June on a seasonally adjusted basis — its second consecutive monthly increase.

Perhaps the most significant shift, however, is happening on the supply side. New listings fell 17.8% year-over-year, considerably more than the decline in sales. This brought the sales-to-new-listings ratio to approximately 41%, moving the GTA into more balanced territory after a prolonged period in which buyers enjoyed substantial negotiating power.

So, what does that mean depending on where you are in your real estate journey?

Downsizers

For homeowners considering downsizing, July’s numbers offer a little more encouragement. Prices remain below last year, but declining inventory and gradually improving sales suggest that the gap between buyers and sellers may be starting to narrow.

That doesn’t mean every property will sell quickly or command yesterday’s price. Buyers remain selective, and proper preparation and pricing are still extremely important. But downsizers also have an advantage: if you are selling a larger home and purchasing something smaller, particularly a condominium, you may be able to negotiate on the buying side as well.

Rather than trying to perfectly time the market, this remains a good environment for looking at the whole move — what you may realistically sell for, what your next home will cost, and what the difference means financially and practically.

Growing Families & Upsizers

For families needing more space, the current market may offer an interesting window of opportunity.

Prices for detached homes across the GTA were approximately 5% lower than last July, while townhome prices were down about 3.9%. For buyers moving from a smaller property into a larger home, that can matter: even if your existing property is worth less than it was a year ago, the home you are moving into may also have adjusted considerably.

There is still choice in the market, and buyers generally have more time to complete inspections, arrange financing and carefully evaluate a property than they did during highly competitive markets.

If you have been waiting for more space, the question may be less about whether prices have reached their absolute bottom and more about whether the numbers now work for your particular move.

First-Time Buyers

First-time buyers continue to find some of the best purchasing conditions we have seen in several years.

Prices are lower than last year, borrowing costs have come down substantially from their peak, and condominium apartments — often the entry point into homeownership — remain relatively well supplied. GTA condo prices were approximately 2.3% lower than July 2025.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% in July, maintaining the lower-rate environment that has gradually improved affordability.

There is one important caveat: inventory is beginning to shrink. If sales continue to strengthen while fewer properties come onto the market, some of today's negotiating power could gradually disappear.

For first-time buyers who are financially prepared, this may therefore be a particularly worthwhile time to start looking — without feeling pressured to buy simply because the market may be changing.

Investors & Second-Property Buyers

For investors, the opportunity remains highly property-specific.

Lower purchase prices can create opportunities, particularly in the condominium market, but the rental side of the equation needs careful consideration. The GTA rental market has remained well supplied, giving tenants considerably more choice than they had a few years ago.

That means investors cannot automatically assume aggressive rent growth will compensate for carrying costs. Purchase price, condominium fees, taxes, financing, realistic market rent and potential vacancies all need to be considered together.

For recreational or second properties, the same principle applies: softer pricing may create opportunities, but a property intended to generate rental income should be evaluated as a business decision as much as a lifestyle purchase.

Renters

Renters continue to benefit from a noticeably different market than the extremely tight conditions experienced a few years ago.

The most recent TRREB rental data showed GTA condominium rents below year-ago levels across all unit sizes, while available rental supply remained strong. That has given renters more choice — and, in some cases, more ability to negotiate rent, timing or other lease terms.

For renters considering homeownership, however, the calculation is becoming more interesting. Home prices are lower than a year ago, and borrowing costs have improved, while rents have also softened. There is therefore no universal answer to whether renting or buying makes more sense right now.

For some households, continuing to rent provides valuable flexibility. For others who have stable finances, sufficient savings and expect to remain in their home for several years, it may be worth comparing the actual cost of renting with the cost of owning rather than assuming one is automatically more affordable.

The Bottom Line

July’s market is best described as cautiously improving, but still price-sensitive.

Prices remain below last year’s levels, yet sales have now increased month-over-month for five consecutive months. At the same time, fewer sellers are bringing homes to market, reducing some of the excess choice buyers enjoyed earlier in the year.

We are not back in a fast-moving seller’s market — and buyers still have room to be thoughtful and selective. But the balance may slowly be shifting.

As always, GTA-wide statistics only tell part of the story. Conditions can look very different depending on the neighbourhood, property type and price range — and even more importantly, whether you are buying, selling, or doing both.